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Views on Gun Laws Unchanged After Shooting, Poll Finds

By JENNIFER PRESTON

The July 20 mass shooting in a Colorado movie theater that left 12 people dead and 58 injured has not significantly changed the way Americans view gun regulation, according to a national poll published Monday by the Pew Research Center.

The poll showed that 47 percent of the people surveyed said that regulating gun ownership was more important than gun rights, compared with 45 percent of those who said that protecting the ability of Americans to own guns was more important.

The findings of the poll, which surveyed 1,010 people July 26-29, were similar to those of a poll in April. In that survey, 45 percent said they would make gun control a priority, compared with 49 percent who said they would favor gun rights.

Other recent mass shootings also did not shift public opinion on gun regulation. The research center noted that there was no significant change in the balance of opinion about gun rights and gun control after six people were killed and 10 wounded in January 2011 in Arizona, including Representative Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot in the head.

“Nor was there a spike in support for gun control following the shooting at Virginia Tech University, in April 2007, ” the center's report said.

On Monday, James E. Holmes, the suspect in the Colorado shooting who is said to have used three guns in the deadly rampage, made his second court appearance. My colleagues Jack Healy and Dan Frosch reported that Mr. Holmes did not show any emotion as he learned during the hearing that he faces 142 criminal charges and the possibility of the death penalty.

In Denver, gun store owners saw a surge in people wanting to buy guns immediately after the shooting. The Denver Post reported that there was a 43 percent increase in the number of people seeking background checks for gun purchases in the three days after the shooting compared with the p revious weekend.

Public opinion on gun control has been deeply divided since 2009, said the Pew Center, which has been conducting polls on this issue since 1993. Until then, the center said that people had consistently ranked regulating guns higher than protecting rights of gun owners.

Gallop has been asking about handgun bans since 1956. It published a graph showing a steady decline over the years in support for a handgun ban, reaching a record low of 26 percent in October 2011. That same Gallop poll also found that 53 percent of those polled said they favored a ban on assault weapons.

The most recent Pew Center survey showed that positions on gun control follow the partisan divide, with Democrats favoring more gun regulation 72 percent to 21 percent while Republicans support gun rights 71 percent to 26 percent. There is also a gender divide, with more men than women favoring gun rights over gun regulation.

The poll, conducted using landlines and ce llphones nationwide, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

What are your thoughts on gun regulation?



Levinsohn Confirms That He\'s Leaving Yahoo

5:44 p.m. | Updated Ross Levinsohn, the executive who served as Yahoo‘s interim chief, confirmed on Monday that he was leaving the tech company after being passed over to fill the spot permanently.

The departure of Mr. Levinsohn was not surprising, after Yahoo named former Google executive Marissa Mayer as its new leader.

In an e-mail to friends reviewed by DealBook, Mr. Levinsohn did not disclose his next steps. But he praised the company as having an “amazing brand” and described his short tenure as interim chief executive as “one of the best experiences of my career.”

His departure comes just two weeks after Ms. Mayer stepped into the role that Mr. Levinsohn assumed would be his own. Mr. Levinsohn ran Yahoo's media, business development and sales operations and assumed the role of interim chief after Scott Thompson, Yahoo's last chief executive, left in May amid questions that he had embellished academ ic credentials on his resume.

As recently as mid-June, Mr. Levinsohn was interviewing candidates for senior positions at Yahoo and telling them that the role of chief executive would be his, according to one person who was interviewed by Mr. Levinsohn but declined to be named because they still work with their current employer.

Mr. Levinsohn had already brought on a few senior hires, including Michael Barrett, a former Google executive who was named as Yahoo's top advertising revenue manager.

He had also successfully brokered a settlement with Facebook over a patent fight that began under Mr. Thompson, an agreement that included an expanded content partnership.

Yahoo employees had been hoping that Mr. Levinsohn would stay with the company and help run Yahoo in tandem with Ms. Mayer.

“That would have been the best case scenario - Ross is great at running businesses and delivering value to shareholders and Marissa is a product visionaryâ€" toget her those two could be a powerful combination,” said one employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

Here's a note that Mr. Levinsohn e-mailed to friends:

I wanted to let you know that my time at Yahoo has come to an end. It has been an incredible journey for me and I could not be prouder of what we accomplished over the past few years helping define Yahoo as a leader in digital media and advertising. Yahoo is an amazing brand and company, and I leave knowing we did all we could to help inform and entertain more than 700 million users each month. Leading this company has been one of the best experiences of my career, but it is time for me to look for the next challenge.

Azam Ahmed contributed reporting.



Damien Cave is Taking Questions on Drug Policy in Latin America

By DAMIEN CAVE

Forty-one years after President Richard M. Nixon declared a “war on drugs,” is it time for a change? How should enforcement be targeted - and what are the best ways to rein in addiction and the organized criminal networks that make billions from the trade in illicit drugs?

These drug questions and many others are gaining momentum in Washington and in Latin America, a frontline of the drug war for generations. Policy makers who once took for granted that the drug problem could be controlled with tough laws, some treatment, and moral arguments for prevention, now find themselves grappling with a more global, more complicated scourge.

Drug violence has intensified in areas that are neither major producers nor consumers (Central America, West Africa) and while Americans are using far less cocaine, preferring prescription drugs, South America, Asia and parts of Europe are seeing cocaine addiction rise as traffickers explo it new markets.

As Michael Schmidt and I wrote two weeks ago, these changes have led American officials to a collective reconsideration of antidrug priorities. But while Washington tinkers - with significant but incremental changes at home and abroad - Latin America is demanding an overhaul.

As a correspondent based in Mexico, I have seen the arguments over drug policy intensify here and in Central America over the past year, but the most ambitious plan now comes from farther south. I just returned from Montevideo, where Uruguay's president is proposing outright legalization for marijuana, with taxes and regulation. As my story notes, leaders in at least eight other Latin American countries, including Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, are also calling for open debate about legalization - and not just for marijuana.

“The feeling is that the war on drugs has resulted in profound damage,” said Paulo Teixeira, a Brazilian congressman sponsoring a bill to decrim inalize the use of all drugs. “We are trying to distance ourselves from the U.S. model.”

What could that mean going forward? What are the pitfalls raising concerns, or the benefits supporters hope to gain?

I will be answering questions this week in English and Spanish about drug policy and the drug business here on The Lede. Your questions can be submitted in the comments section below, in whichever language you prefer and you can also post questions or reactions on Twitter by including the hashtag #NYTWorldChat.

Reaction and responses to a select number of questions - chosen for their relevance or insight - will be posted here. Pregúnteme cualquier cosa (ask me anything.)

Leer el artículo en español.

Follow @DamienCave on Twitter.



How eBay Worked a Comeback

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News

John Donahoe has led a revival of eBay. “Our multiyear effort is paying off,” he said.

Remember Myspace, Friendster, eToys, Webvan, Urban Fetch, Pets.com? Like meteors, they burned with dazzling brilliance before turning shareholder dollars to ash. EBay, Yahoo and AOL, the dominant Internet triumvirate circa 2004, seemed destined for a similar fate. The conventional wisdom has been that once decline sets in at an Internet company, it's irreversible.

But that was before 's latest earnings surprise, which sent its stock soaring and had analysts scrambling to raise their projections. “Can Internet companies ever turn around? The answer has been no,” Ken Sena, Internet analyst at Evercore, told me this week. “But now, there's eBay. The answer may turn out to be yes.”

If so, eBay's success has big implications for struggling companies like Yahoo and AOL, not to mention more recent sensations that have already lost some luster, like Zynga, Groupon and even Facebook, whose shares tumbled this week after its first earnings report as a public company disappointed investors. “EBay has demonstrated that it's possible to turn the corner even against long odds,” said David Spitz, president and chief operating officer of ChannelAdvisor, an e-commerce consulting company.

EBay shares hit a peak of over $58 in 2004 and made its chief executive, Meg Whitman, a Silicon Valley celebrity. But by November 2007, when she stepped down to enter politics, the telltale signs of decline had set in. Its stock was slumping. Its dominant online auction business had matured, and growth had slowed. Sellers complained about higher fees and poor support. That year, eBay wrote off $1.4 billion on its poorly conceived $2.5 billion acquisition of the calling service Skype, recording its first loss as a public company. Analysts worried that eBay had lost its quirky soul, and was abandoning the flea market auction model that had made it distinctive and dominant in online auctions. By early 2009, its stock was barely over $10, down over 80 percent from its peak.

Ms. Whitman was succeeded by a former Bain & Company managing director, John Donahoe. “One of the unique things about the Internet is a company can be a white-hot success and become a global brand and reach global scale in just a few years - that's the good news,” he told me this week. “But then somebody can turn around and do it to you. There's constant disruption. One of the first things I had to do here was face reality. EBay was getting disrupted.”

Little more than four years after taking charge, a buoyant Mr. Donahoe sounded like the chief executive of a surging start-up when he announced eBay's latest results on July 18. So thoroughly has eBay been transformed that he didn't even mention its traditional auction business. “Our multiyear effort is paying off,” he said. Profit more than doubled and revenue jumped 23 percent. “EBay is revitalized. We believe the best is yet to come.” In a stock market struggling with recession fears and the , eBay stock this week hit a six-year high.

How has eBay done it when so many others have failed?

Excitement about eBay's prospects has little to do with its traditional auction business, or even its core e-commerce operations, although its marketplace division posted solid results and had its best quarter since 2006, the company said. Most of its growth came from mobile retailing and its PayPal online payments division, a business it acquired in 2002 for what now looks like a bargain $1.5 billion.

As consumers embrace shopping on their smartphones, “mobile continues to be a game-changer,” Mr. Donahoe said. He noted that 90 million users had downloaded eBay's mobile app and that 600,000 customers made their first mobile purchase during the most recent quarter. “A woman's handbag is purchased on eBay mobile every 30 seconds,” he said. “Mobile is revolutionizing how people shop and pay.”

“It's hard to think of many companies that benefit from mobile,” Mr. Sena said. “Usually it means more competition. But clearly, eBay is one of them. EBay is offering a one-click payment solution. You don't have to type in a credit card number or PIN. It's just one click on your mobile phone.”

Mr. Spitz said he was recently stopped at a traffic light and the sun was bothering his eyes. By the time the light turned green, he had used his phone to order and pay for sunglasses. “This is what commerce anytime, anywhere means,” he said. “It's here.”



It\'s Hard to Like a Digital Exercise Monitor

EARLIER this month, I found myself obsessing over a digital pet as demanding as the Tamagotchi toys I collected as a child. Those virtual creatures lived on the screens of egg-shaped key chains and needed constant feeding and petting, which was accomplished with the press of a button.

My latest fixation wasn't an ersatz animal. It was the Nike FuelBand, a slim, black bracelet that has the mission of tracking the daily of anyone who wears it.

From the moment I wrapped the band around my wrist, I was enamored with the idea of a device that could help me collect data about my habits and behavior, so that I could try to improve them. The only trouble was that the device didn't seem to work very well.

The FuelBand, which awards virtual points for various forms of exercise, doled out rewards with little apparent rationale. One lazy Sunday, I lounged around my apartment with my and an endless pot of coffee, barely moving. But the band delivered a cheery message: I'd hit my goal for the day. Huh?

Others have noticed this inconsistency, too. Casey Chan, a writer at Gizmodo, found that the band awarded more points for eating a slice of pizza than for walking up a flight of stairs.

Joseph Teegardin, a Nike spokesman, said last week that the company assigned points to a range of behaviors. To tally those points, the accelerometers in the wristband monitor activity and match movement patterns to a Nike proprietary index. He added that the device worked best with activities involving wrist movement - dancing and basketball, for example.

The device's inconsistency was frustrating. After a few days, though, I forgot about my newfound pet altogether, leaving it in a public restroom and then, after retrieving it, putting it in my back pocket and later accidentally sitting on it. Until then, the wristband had certainly been affecting my behavior. I felt Fuelshamed, embarrassed each time I glanced at the band's dull surface and found it illuminated by a lonely red dot, a signal that I wasn't active enough to appease the machine.

The FuelBand is part of a new, ambitious breed of fitness tracking devices and apps that promise to transform their owners into personal data collectors, able to analyze and improve the minutiae of their daily lives - where they go, what they eat and how much they move.

These gadgets and software have attracted legions of fans who want to know how far they run on a jog or how many they burn on their way to work. The FuelBand, however, is trying to move into new territory by creating its own index for awarding points, called NikeFuel, based on a variety of activities and then calculating a daily total. It's meant to give its users a generic goal, but it can also lead to confusion, given the ambiguity of the metrics.

THE and guilt I experienced as my FuelBand honeymoon wore off is not uncommon, according to people who study behavioral science. The collected data is often interesting, but it is hard to analyze and use in a way that spurs change.

“It doesn't trigger you to do anything habitually,” said Michael Kim, who runs Kairos Labs, a Seattle-based company specializing in designing social software to influence behavior. “Habits are based on cues that happen every day, which leads to a routine and then a reward or achievement, which could just be something as general as an endorphin rush.”

Of the FuelBand, he said, “You just see a pretty number that isn't always enough to be a trigger.” The FuelBand connects with smartphones and a Web-based interface, which shows users a cute animation of a dancing alien as a reward for reaching a goal. But Mr. Kim, whose résumé includes a stint as director of Xbox Live, the online gaming system created by Microsoft, said the gamelike mechanisms of the Nike device and others like it were “not enough” for the average user. “Points and badges do not lead to behavior change,” he said.

The FuelBand and its counterparts also allow users to announce their achievements on various social networks. But frequent updates could annoy the friends who see them. “Does anyone really want to see how many miles you ran, what you weigh, along with what the weather is where you are and the songs you're listening to?” said B. J. Fogg, who directs the Persuasive Technology Lab at Stanford and has conducted research tests with the FuelBand and other forms of wearable technology.

But Mr. Fogg said he believed that the FuelBand might be useful in another way. Simply donning it can work as a fancier version of a string tied around your finger: a reminder to complete a task or errand, he said. It could be the nudge you need, for example, to get off the subway a few stops early and walk the rest of the way home, or to jog a few extra laps around the track.

“You aren't going to be any less active than you already are by wearing it,” he said.

But its benefits, such as they are, may not be sustainable. “The biggest problem people have is losing the device,” Mr. Fogg said with a laugh. “Is it reasonable to expect someone to wear it every day for the rest of their life?”

It isn't for me. My once-beloved FuelBand now lives on a crowded dresser, surrounded by jewelry I've grown tired of wearing.

Of course, these monitoring devices could be miniaturized further, and could develop more impressive capabilities. Steven Dean, who organizes gatherings in New York for self-trackers - people who collect data about everything from their caffeine intake to their number of smiles - said we were in the early stages of information gathering and analysis. He compared it to documenting a rash on his skin, photographing it and keeping a record of its response to various allergy creams.

“I may not know what to make of the information I've collected, but at least I have it,” Mr. Dean said. “I could show the dermatologist what I looked like two weeks ago rather than guess.”

EVENTUALLY, wearable devices will help people understand more of their bodies' behaviors and find ways to tweak them. Already, personal data streams can be exported to smartphones or computers for use in digital weight scales and heart and blood-sugar monitors. Future devices could nudge their owners in real time, letting them know if they were near a gym and hadn't worked out in a few days. Or they could warn patients to stay away from ice cream shops.

“This is just the start in terms of pure data capture,” Mr. Dean said.



In Interview, Romney Brings Arab Spring into Presidential Race

By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

Mitt Romney on Saturday explicitly sought for the first time to turn the Arab Spring into an issue in the United States presidential race. In an interview with an Israeli newspaper to set up his visit to Israel this weekend, Mr. Romney made several provocative statements distinguishing himself from President Obama.

Mr. Romney discussed the Arab Spring revolts as a problem rather than progress, he asserted against some evidence that the Obama administration had abandoned an agenda of pushing for democratic reform pursued by George W. Bush, and he characterized even the most moderate and Western friendly Islamists- those in the political parties leading legislatures in Tunisia and Morocco- as political opponents. The last runs counter to the Obama administration's strategy, endorsed by some Republicans in Congress, of building alliances with moderate Islamists where possible.

- Read the full interview



Apple Said to Consider Stake in Twitter

, which has stumbled in its efforts to get into social media, has talked with in recent months about making a strategic investment in it, according to people briefed on the matter.

While Apple has been hugely successful in selling phones and tablets, it has little traction in social networking, which has become a major engine of activity on the Web and on mobile devices. Social media are increasingly influencing how people spend their time and money - an important consideration for Apple, which also sells applications, games, music and movies.

Apple has considered an investment in the hundreds of millions of dollars, one that could value Twitter at more than $10 billion, up from an $8.4 billion valuation last year, these people said. They declined to be named because the discussions were private.

There is no guarantee that the two companies, which are not in negotiations at the moment, will come to an agreement. But the earlier talks are a sign that they may form a stronger partnership amid intensifying competition from the likes of Google and .

Apple has not made many friends in social media. Its relationship with Facebook, for example, has been strained since a deal to build Facebook features into Ping, Apple's music-centric social network, fell apart. Facebook is also aligned with Microsoft, which owns a small stake in it. And Google, an Apple rival in the phone market, has been pushing its own social network, Google Plus.

“Apple doesn't have to own a social network,” Timothy D. Cook, Apple's chief executive, said at a recent technology conference. “But does Apple need to be social? Yes.”

Twitter and Apple have already been working together. Recently, Apple has tightly sewn Twitter features into its software for phones, tablets and computers, while, behind the scenes, Twitter has put more resources into managing its relationship with Apple.

Though an investment in Twitter would not be a big financial move for Apple by any stretch - it has $117 billion in liquid investments, and it quietly agreed to buy a mobile security company for $356 million on Friday - it would be one of Mr. Cook's most important strategic decisions as chief executive. And it would be an uncommon arrangement for Apple, which tends to buy small start-ups that are then absorbed into the company.

But such a deal would give Apple more access to Twitter's deep understanding of the social Web, and pave the way for closer Twitter integration into Apple's products.

Twitter has grown quickly, amassing more than 140 million monthly active users who generate a vast stream of short messages about their lives, the news and everything else. An Apple investment would give it the glow of a close relationship with a technology icon, and would instantly bolster its valuation, which, like that of other start-ups, has languished in the wake of Facebook's lackluster market debut. In fact, word of the talks comes at a time when some are asking whether expectations for the potential of social media companies have gotten out of hand, and shares of Facebook, Zynga and other companies have wilted.

But Twitter does not need Apple's cash. Earlier this year, Dick Costolo, Twitter's chief executive, said the company had “truckloads of money in the bank.”

The truckloads, according to people familiar with the matter, add up to more than $600 million in cash on hand. This comes from the $1 billion in financing it has raised over the years and, more recently, from a healthy flow of advertising revenue.

Regardless, Twitter is widely expected to pursue a public offering within the next couple of years, whether or not it agrees to deals with investors like Apple.

Apple and Twitter are logical partners in some ways. Unlike Facebook or Google, Twitter has no plans to compete with Apple in the phone business or elsewhere. And as Apple has found, social is just not in its DNA.

“Those guys are a great partner,” Mr. Costolo said of Apple in a recent interview. “We think of them as a company that our company looks up to.” Mr. Costolo would not discuss any potential investments or anything else related to the company's relationship with Apple.

Spokesmen for both Apple and Twitter said on Friday that their companies did not comment on rumors.



As Facebook and Zynga Drop, Some See a Shift in Silicon Valley

SAN FRANCISCO - Another couple of days like this and the great tech bubble of 2012 might recede into history.

Several companies that were supposed to be the foundation of a new Internet era plummeted this week as analysts and investors downgraded their dreams. There were instant echoes of the crash of 2000, when the money stopped flowing, the dot-coms crumbled and Silicon Valley devolved into recriminations and lawsuits.

Shares of stumbled to a new low Friday after its first earnings report revealed a murky path to any profit that would justify its lofty valuation. The heavily promoted $100 billion company on the eve of its May debut is now a $65 billion company and persistently headed south.

, the social games company that uses Facebook as a platform, was battered even worse on Thursday, leaving its value at less than a quarter of its peak last winter. Netflix, which is trying to move from physical discs to streaming video, and the coupon company Groupon have also been under severe pressure, leaving them at a fraction of their recent worth.

Feelings of disillusionment are far from universal, and came even as The New York Times reported that , the most successful tech company, had been discussing an investment in . Social media is flourishing; a billion Facebook and 500 million Twitter users would vouch for that. But as just about every Internet company is grappling with the transition to a mobile world, turning groups of people into cash-generating customers on a hand-held device is clearly an immense task.

Nick Zaharias, an independent consultant who advises institutional investors, said his clients were “infinitely more skeptical.”

“For future deals that are pitched as social deals,” he explained, “they're not going to pay up. The multiples are going to be far, far lower.”

The issues facing each tumbling company are slightly different. But they all have the problem of selling something - imaginary tractors, Internet films, discount deals or, in Facebook's case, someone “liking” a product - that is not quite real and perhaps less than essential.

“The gleam has come off the word ‘social,' ” said Ben Schachter, an Internet analyst with the Macquarie Group. “The ground is now shifting underneath these companies' feet at a speed that we didn't see even in the late 1990s.”

Groupon and Netflix have been in the investor doghouse for a while, while with Facebook there seems simple regret that its grandest ambitions might not be reached (“The jury is in: Facebook is not and will not be a second ,” the research group IDC said).

With Zynga, however, there was a sudden sense that building a blue-chip business from virtual goods might be virtually impossible.

“Shocking,” Mr. Schachter wrote in his report after Zynga revealed in its earnings report on Wednesday that it might make less than half of what it had hoped to earn this year from its more obsessive players who pay actual money for virtual goods like tractors - its only real source of income. Increasingly, gamers want to play on the run, and Zynga's mobile games are not a runaway success.

For all the pain that stockholders of Zynga and the other companies must feel, it is not yet March 2000, when all tech stocks went into free fall. The old-line companies, including Google, and Apple, are doing fine.

But the questions about whether the chief executives and other early investors in some once-hot companies might have been a little too eager to cash in are already beginning, just as they did 12 years ago.

Early investors in Facebook increased their participation in the public offering at the last minute by more than 80 million shares, netting them nearly a billion dollars more than the shares would have fetched Friday on the open market. (Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's founder, was not among those increasing their allotment.) Zynga's founder, Mark Pincus, sold 16 million shares in an unusual secondary offering four months after the December public offering. He and other executives got $12 a share in those more optimistic times, four times the price on Friday.

Mr. Pincus was asked about those sales on Wednesday during the analyst conference call by the BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield. “I wanted to see whether he felt bad about it,” Mr. Greenfield said later. Mr. Pincus did not address the point.

If investors were battered and Wall Street was alarmed, Silicon Valley was unfazed.

The downward slide in public valuations would have an effect on private valuations, venture capitalists said, but it would be manageable.



Mexico\'s Student Movement Protests Televisa

By SOFIA CASTELLO Y TICKELL and JENNIFER PRESTON

Thousands protested outside the television studios of Televisa starting Thursday night, claiming that Mexico's major television broadcaster delivered biased coverage of the July 1 presidential election.

Blocking entrances to the network's studios in Mexico City into Friday, the crowd of mostly students shouted “Tell the truth,” as they made it difficult for employees to get in and out.

It was the latest effort by the student movement that started last May to try and drive change around issues of freedom of expression and raise concerns about corruption, even though they were unable to influence the outcome of the July 1 presidential election.

From London, where he is covering the Olympics, Joaquín López-Dóriga, one of the television network's biggest stars, complained on Twitter that the protesters were keeping his colleagues from returning home. He included a p hoto of a colleague sleeping under a desk.

The post prompted unfavorable comments about Mr. López-Dóriga and fueled the anger from the crowd, both online and offline, over accusations that Televisa provided favorable coverage of Enrique Peña Nieto, the winner of the presidential election.

Perceived media manipulation of public opinion during the presidential contest by Televisa became a major focus for the student movement since it began last May, calling itself #YoSoy132 after its Twitter hashtag.

Video from the protest and from Televisa's broadcast.

The Guardian reported that a unit in Televisa was set up to provide favorable coverage of Mr. Peña Nieto and his political party.

Last weekend, 30,000 people showed up for Mexico City's latest mass protest with people shouting, “Peña is not our president,” nearly a month after Mr. Peña Nieto won the election with 38.8 percent of the vote.

Similar protests took place in cities across Mexico, including Monterrey and Oaxaca, dismissing some questions that the student movement would fade after the July 1 election.

In interviews at the march, protesters said they believed that their presence at demonstrations could play a role in shaping the debate over Mexico's future and in keeping the Mr. Peña Nieto's party, the PRI â€" the Institutional Revolutionary Party â€" from returning to the autocratic, corrupt form of government that defined its reign from 1929 to 2000.

“At minimum, we want it to be understood that society has matured and changed and become more demanding,” said Dr. Raimundo Yanes, a physician. “We can't be fooled that easily a nymore.”

The student movement began at a private university, but the demonstration last weekend and the protest on Thursday included students, union workers and people from myriad backgrounds. The future of the #YoSoy132 is unknown, but some members said that they could begin to forge a more strategic path now that they were no longer dealing with the timeline of an election.

“You have people of few means marching along with the elites,” said Sebastian Mitl, a student. “There is such a wide gamut of visions.”

Mr. Mitl described the movement as an “escape valve” for the frustrations of Mexican society.

“I want a different Mexico,” said Ariel Tonatiuh, a schoolboy with closely cropped hair, adding that some of his friends have also become intere sted in politics. “One without violence and corruption.”



For the United States, Arab Spring Raises Question of Values Versus Interests

By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

CAIRO - Barack Obama came here as a new president in 2009 to proclaim “a new beginning” in American relations with the Muslim world, grounded in support for the dream of Arab democracy and “governments that reflect the will of the people.”

The Agenda

Middle East stability and security post Arab Spring.

He could not have guessed that the demand for Arab democracy would instead become one of his presidency's greatest foreign policy challenges, forcing whoever wins the November election to confront tough trade offs between American values and interests.

The popular uprisings that have swept the region since Mr. Obama's speech in Cairo have upended an authoritarian order that was largely congenial to the United States. While they may have brought Arab nations closer than ever to fulfilling of the pr omise of self-determination that has echoed through the speeches of American presidents since Woodrow Wilson at the end of the First World War, they have also imperiled crucial American allies, empowered antagonistic Islamists, and unleashed sectarian animosities that threaten to drag the whole region toward chaos.

Before the uprisings, a rough balance of power held in check enemies like Iran. Israel and other allies were increasingly secure within their borders. Even Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi, once the “mad dog of the Middle East,” in President Ronald Reagan's words, was eager for closer ties with the United States, and American diplomats sent high-level emissaries to the Syrian capital, Damascus, in the hope of sweet-talking President Bashar al-Assad at least a few steps away from Tehran and closer to Washington.

Despite the strains caused by the invasion of Iraq and its bloody aftermath, American influence was arguably at an apex in the capitals of the Ar ab world if not the hearts and minds of the its people.

There was one deadly drawback. Washington's support for Arab autocracies drew the fire of militants who despaired of toppling their own monarchs and strongmen. That was the genesis of Al Qaeda. But those same Arab strongmen - including Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Colonel Qaddafi in Libya, and President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia - were eager to lend their spies and jails to the American fight against terrorism.

For the occupant of the White House, the upheaval has produced at least three pressing dilemmas.

The first is the rising power of Islamists. Democratic elections in Egypt and Tunisia have brought to power Islamist parties historically opposed to United States policies in the region, from Washington's support for Israel to the American invasion of Iraq. At the same time, the toppling of the old secular strongmen has opened up a new debate among Islamists over ju st what Islamic governance should mean, including how to balance respect for individual freedom against traditional religious values. How can American policy makers assess the intents and agenda of the new Islamist leaders? Can the United States build productive alliances with these former foes? In Egypt, should the United States back the elected Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood in their struggle to pry power from the hands of military leaders? The generals were once Washington's best friends in Egypt but now threaten to curtail the transition to democracy?

The second challenge is the threat the insurgents pose to other undemocratic allies. Here the clearest case is in the tiny, oil-rich Kingdom of Bahrain. It is the home to the American fifth fleet and provides a vital base in the Persian Gulf. But its Sunni Muslim monarchs have used brutal force to crush a largely peaceful democracy movement backed by a Shiite Muslim majority.

Can or should the United States push the king to yield power? Would that risk the rise of Shiite Muslim parties backed by Shiite Muslim Iran? Would it alienate other important allies like the monarchs of Saudi Arabia or Jordan? And if the American president continues to stand by the King of Bahrain - as the Obama administration has - can America still hold itself up as a champion of democratic values in the rest of the region?

The third challenge is the eruption of sectarian animosities long suppressed by the old autocrats. The most explosive case here is Syria. The uprising against Mr. Assad is also a battle between Syria's Sunni Muslim majority and his own minority Alawite Muslim sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam whose members dominate the Syrian military. Many of the Alawites fear annihilation at the hands of the Sunni insurgents seeking revenge for decades of repression by Mr. Assad and his father, former President Hafez al Assad. Others in the region fear the Syrian conflict could become a regi onal proxy war pitting Shiite Iran on one side against Sunni Muslim Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states on the other. Sparks from the Syrian fighting have already shown the potential to reignite sectarian violence in neighboring Lebanon, around the border town of Tripoli.

Should the United States lend its support to the rebels challenging Mr. Assad, as Senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, both Republicans, have urged? How well does the United States know the rebels it might aid? And can Western policy makers prevent or contain a descent into sectarian violence, a grander and more catastrophic return of the kind of strife that engulfed neighboring Lebanon in a decade of civil war?

The situation is evolving by the day and often in unpredictable ways. It often seems distant from the domestic economic issues dominating the presidential campaign. But as Mr. Obama has learned since his speech in Cairo three years ago, events, welco me or not, have a way of imposing themselves on the White House.

Over the course of the campaign we will try to present arguments from Washington and the Middle East about how the White House might seek to advance American values and interests after “the new beginning” of the Arab spring. And we will re-examine the challenge over the next few months with each turn of events in the region. We are inviting experts and readers to weigh in and raise questions as we explore the issues, as part of a series we're calling the Agenda.



Possible Tornado Touches Down in Elmira, N.Y.

By JENNIFER PRESTON and MARC SANTORA

A video of damage in Elmira, N.Y., caused by a possible tornado on Thursday afternoon.

A possible tornado touched down in Elmira, N.Y., late Thursday, damaging buildings, toppling trees and bringing down power lines. The authorities said some people were trapped in their cars when the storm struck around 4 p.m. There were no reports of serious injuries.

Evan White, a reporter for the ABC affiliate WHAM-TV, took these photos and posted them on Twitter while he reported the story.

East side billboard torn apart http://t.co/ZuXlmMh6

- Evan White (@evanwhite13) 27 Jul 12

Emergency officials in Chemung County said there was “significant damage” in Elmira. The National Weather Service said that there were unconfirmed reports that a tornado had touched down.

Severe weather moved across Ohio and Pennsylvania on Thursday afternoon, and into New York and New England, bringing heavy rain and in some cases, strong winds and hail.

In the New York metropolitan area, weather officials said that the storm moved in shortly after 7 p.m. The hardest hit areas were northwest of the city in Westchester County and in parts of Connecticut, where there were multiple reports of downed trees and power lines. The highest measured wind gusts in the area were 60 miles per hour, near the Tappan Zee Bridge, officials said.

Around 8 p.m., wind gusts of up to 54 miles per hour were reported at Kennedy International Air port, weather officials said. Hundreds of flights were delayed because of the storm. Amtrak also reported delays.

Late Thursday, tens of thousands of people in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut were without power.

On Instagram, the photo sharing service, people posted pictures from Elmira of downed trees and a new structure that appeared in a backyard.



2 Private Equity Firms to Buy United Technologies Unit for $3.46 Billion

United Technologies is a step closer to paying for its takeover of the Goodrich Corporation.

Two private equity firms, the Carlyle Group and BC Partners, have agreed to buy Hamilton Sundstrand Industrial, a maker of industrial pumps and compressors, from United Technologies for $3.46 billion, the companies announced on Wednesday.

Proceeds from the transaction, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year, will go toward financing United Technologies' $16.5 billion acquisition of Goodrich, which was announced in 2011. Carlyle and BC Partners are both investing in the deal, with debt financing from a group of banks.

The agreement is the latest move by United Technologies to shed noncore assets. On Monday, the company said it agreed to sell its Rocketdyne unit to GenCorp for $550 million. In March, United Technologies said it planned to sell about $3 billion worth of assets to help pay for the Goodrich deal.

Hamilton Sundstrand Industr ial comprises three businesses, which make components used in industries like energy and mining. United Technologies, which is based in Hartford, Conn., makes elevators and aircraft engines.

“We believe Hamilton Sundstrand Industrial's strong product mix combined with secular growth trends in the energy, chemicals and industrials sectors create attractive long-term growth prospects for the company,” Vipul Amin, a principal of the Carlyle Group, said in a statement.

The buyers were advised by Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets, and the law firm Latham & Watkins. A host of banks - Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets and UBS - have committed financing.



Facing Congress, Geithner Grilled on Rate Rigging

Timothy F. Geithner was questioned sharply on Wednesday about the rate-rigging scandal that has consumed the banking industry, as lawmakers at a House hearing asked why he had failed to thwart wrongdoing during the financial crisis.

Republicans took aim at Mr. Geithner for, in their view, going easy on Wall Street despite knowing that some banks had been trying to manipulate a key interest rate. When he ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2008, Mr. Geithner advocated broad reforms to the rate-setting process rather than curbing the bad behavior at specific banks.

Mr. Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, also acknowledged on Wednesday that he had never alerted federal prosecutors to the wrongdoing. The revelation further stoked the ire of Republicans, including some regular detractors of Mr. Geithner.

“It appears you treated it as almost a curiosity, or something akin to jaywalking, as opposed to highway robbery,” said Jeb Hensarling, Republic an of Texas.

The hearing before the House Financial Services Committee was the latest forum to scrutinize regulators' role in the rate manipulation scandal. Lawmakers have pressed the New York Fed and its British counterparts to explain why illegal actions went unchecked for years.

But Mr. Geithner escaped relatively unscathed from the more than two-hour hearing. Even as Republicans denounced Mr. Geithner for his actions as president of the New York Fed, many Democrats rushed to his defense. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, declared that it was the banks, not regulators, that “grievously misbehaved.”

Mr. Geithner, who on Wednesday was also asked to outline the broader state of Wall Street regulation, challenged his Republican critics. In testimony, Mr. Geithner said that he was “very concerned” about the interest rate problem and he had promptly notified other regulators about his worries.

British authorities who oversee the rate, he sa id, failed to heed his warnings.

“We took the initiative to bring those concerns to the attention of the broader U.S. regulatory community,” Mr. Geithner said, referring to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. “I believe we did the necessary and appropriate thing very early in the process.”

The controversy centers on the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, a measure of how much banks charge to lend to one another. Libor, lawmakers observed, is entwined in the financial system as a benchmark for trillions of dollars in mortgages and other loans.

A global investigation into more than a dozen big banks has now called into question the integrity of the important rate. Last month, Barclays struck a $450 million settlement with American and British authorities over accusations that it had undermined Libor to bolster its trading profits and project a strong image of its health, the first action to stem from the multiyear inquiry.

On Wednesday, the European Commission announced plans to make the manipulation of benchmark interest rates a criminal offense.

Barclays on Wednesday also disclosed the resignation of Alison Carnwath, head of the firm's compensation board committee, in the latest shake-up at the beleaguered bank. She is leaving for undisclosed personal reasons. The firm's chairman, Marcus Agius, and chief executive, Robert E. Diamond Jr., have agreed to step down amid the inquiries into Libor.

The New York Fed learned in April 2008 that Barclays had been artificially depressing its rates. “We know that we're not posting, um, an honest” rate, a Barclays employee told a New York Fed official.

Mr. Geithner said he was not then aware of “that specific conversation.”

But that same day, New York Fed officials wrote in a weekly internal memo that the problem was widespread. “Our contacts at Libor contributing banks have indicated a tende ncy to underreport actual borrowing costs,” New York Fed officials wrote. At the time, high borrowing costs were a sign of poor health.

Even after discovering that banks were manipulating Libor, the New York Fed pursued a somewhat passive approach. When Mr. Geithner briefed other American regulators on Libor in May 2008, he did not disclose the specific wrongdoing at Barclays.

Republicans also seized on Mr. Geithner's acknowledgment that he had not notified the Justice Department about the illegal behavior. The Justice Department, he explained, did not belong to the group of regulators that were focused on Libor.

In response to the criticism, Mr. Geithner pointed to his past efforts to reform Libor. He noted the New York Fed had repeatedly pressed for an overhaul of the rate-setting process. In a June 2008 e-mail to the Bank of England, the country's central bank, Mr. Geithner recommended that British officials “eliminate incentive to misreport” Libor .

The New York Fed then advocated fixes more forcefully than its British counterparts, records show. British authorities later adopted only some of Mr. Geithner's recommendations.

“We gave them very specific detailed changes,” Mr. Geithner said, adding that “if more of those would have been adopted sooner, you would have limited the risk.”

But Randy Neugebauer, Republican of Texas, questioned why the New York Fed had focused on policy solutions rather than the overt legal violations. “If they were having structural problems, then I think your e-mail was appropriate,” said Mr. Neugebauer, who is leading an investigation into how the New York Fed had handled the Libor scandal. “But what was being disclosed here was fraud.”

Ultimately, Mr. Geithner said, responsibility rests with the British regulators. “We felt, and I still believe this, it was really going to be on them to fix this.”

Democrats echoed his argument. “I for one am not part of the ‘blame America first' crowd,” said Brad Sherman, Democrat of California.

Other Democratic lawmakers praised Mr. Geithner for championing reforms to Libor.

“There's been an effort to blame you for all of this,” said Mr. Frank, the ranking Democrat on the committee. But that is a surprising stance for Republicans, he said, given their general aversion to regulatory authority.

Or, as Michael E. Capuano, Democrat from Massachusetts, asked Mr. Geithner about the Republican complaints, aren't they “hypocritical?”

Mr. Geithner replied, “I would leave that to others to say.”



In Spat Between Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, Appraisers Are Called In

Brokerage firms were once the bread and butter of Wall Street. Still, a recent spat between Morgan Stanley and Citigroup has exposed just how hard it is for even the experts in the business to quantify the value of such operations.

During Morgan Stanley's earnings call last Thursday, its chief executive, James P. Gorman, trumpeted the strengths of its brokerage unit, saying it was an important business for the bank. Yet just a few days earlier, as part of deal negotiations with Citigroup, Morgan Stanley placed a surprisingly low valuation on that very same unit.

That apparent disconnect reveals the high stakes that exist as Morgan Stanley wrangles with Citigroup over acquiring a bigger slice of the unit they jointly own, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The unit â€" formed of the union of Citigroup's Smith Barney side and Morgan Stanley's brokerage businesses - manages the assets of wealthy individuals and is headed by Gregory J. Fleming. Mr. Gorman has said that he wants it to play a big role in Morgan Stanley's future.

On a conference call last Thursday, Mr. Gorman was enthusiastic about Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “Our wealth management business will considerably increase its value to our clients and financial advisers through superior functionality and to our shareholders through enhanced and stable earnings,” he said.

The bank bought a 51 percent stake in Morgan Stanley Smith Barney from Citigroup in 2009, and the current talks are over the price it should pay for an additional 14 percent of the unit.

In a financial filing last Thursday about the deal talks, Citigroup implied that Morgan Stanley had come to the table with a bid that places the value of all of the operations of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney at around $9 billion. Citigroup, however, says it's worth about $23 billion. Because of the distance between the bids, both banks now have to call in a third-party appraiser, the investment bank Perella Weinberg Partners.

Executives from Morgan Stanley Smith Barney will give an overview of the business to Perella Weinberg, in a meeting scheduled for Thursday at Morgan Stanley's offices in Purchase, N.Y., according to people briefed on the talks but not authorized to speak on the record because the discussions are private.

Officials from Citigroup and Morgan Stanley will also be in attendance at that first meeting with the appraisers, these people said. Representatives for both companies declined to comment on the meeting.

Then, next week, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley will individually make their case to Perella Weinberg.

The gap between both valuations is likely driven in part by negotiating tactics. Morgan Stanley wants to have full control over the business for as low a price as possible. Meanwhile, Citigroup is likely to want it to be worth more; if it's worth less than Citigroup estimates, the bank, under accounting rules, will be forced to make a write-down on its balance sheet. That could lead to a large and possibly embarrassing charge against earnings and capital.

If Perella Weinberg comes up with a valuation that is far off both banks' bids, it could call into question the accuracy of their balance sheets.

According to a recent filing, Citigroup's balance sheet gives Morgan Stanley Smith Barney a value of around $22 billion, which is comparable to what it has told Morgan Stanley it is worth.

Morgan Stanley hasn't stated the precise value its balance sheet places on the unit, but filings suggest it could be $10 billion to $14 billion. The upper end of that range is far off the $9 billion implied in its bid for the 14 percent stake.Citigroup may have most to lose if the appraisal comes far from its valuation.

Wall Street analysts value Morgan Stanley Smith Barney around $15 billion. But that would be $7 billion below Citigroup's valuation. In such a case, Citigroup would book a loss, thoug h only on its stake, so it would be less than $3.5 billion. That would hurt some important measures of capital, but not others. Any hit to capital would not escape the notice of regulators, like the Federal Reserve, which earlier this year rejected Citigroup's request to return more capital to its shareholders.

But Morgan Stanley may also face some questions on its decision to emphasize its wealth management business. Morgan Stanley's trading businesses are underperforming right now, so it is even more dependent on its wealth management unit.

If Perella Weinberg ends up attaching a value on the low side, close to $9 billion, analysts say it could lead Morgan Stanley shareholders to have doubts about the wealth management business, too.



Morning Take-Out

TOP STORIES

New York Fed Faces Questions Over Policing Wall StreetNew York Fed Faces Questions Over Policing Wall Street  |  As the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced criticism for missing a multibillion-dollar trading loss at JPMorgan Chase, the regulator convened a town hall meeting in May to bolster employee morale. Two months later, the New York Fed staff members huddled again, after lawmakers questioned why the regulator had failed to rein in banks that manipulated benchmark interest rates.

“We were told to keep our heads down and stay focused,” said one person present at the July meeting, who requested anonymity because the gathering was not public.

The New York Fed, whose weaknesses were firs t exposed when the financial crisis hit, is undergoing a new trial by fire as it grapples with how to police Wall Street. While the regulator has revamped its approach to overseeing the nation's biggest banks since the crisis, recent black eyes suggest that fundamental problems persist.

Lawmakers will most likely focus on the record of the New York Fed when Timothy F. Geithner, the regulator's former president, testifies on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, will appear before a Senate panel on Thursday. DealBook '

 

When Picking a C.E.O. Is More Random Than Wise  |  What makes the perfect chief executive? If the way corporate boards at Yahoo and Duke Energy picked chief executives is any indication, it may be up to chance in large part, the Deal Professor writes.

Take Mar issa Mayer, the newly appointed chief of Yahoo. The Yahoo board decided to go with youth and decisiveness over experience. In doing so, the company has agreed to pay a package that could exceed more than $100 million over five years if Ms. Mayer works out. Is she the right choice? It is hard to know. DealBook '

 

DEAL NOTES

At Goldman Sachs, Something in the Water  |  Discolored tap water afflicted Goldman's gleaming new headquarters in Lower Manhattan earlier this month. DealBook '

 

On Wall Street, Gender Bias Runs Deep  |  Women make up more than half of the work force in the financial industry but are chief executives at fewer than 3 percent of American financial compan ies, Luisita Lopez Torregrosa reports for The International Herald Tribune. DealBook '

 

Adjusting to a Culture of Less Risk  |  Bloomberg News reports that some financial workers are finding solace in activities like the combat sport Muay Thai, as Wall Street jobs are affected by new regulations and economic malaise. “There's no sexiness, there's no fun, there's no intellectual intrigue, either,” Ethan Garber, who ran proprietary portfolios for Credit Suisse and Bear Stearns, told Bloomberg. bloomberg news

 

Where Have Wall Street's Good Times Gone?  |  Reuters writes: “Ever since the financial crisis, U.S. banks and their investors have held out hopes of a return to the good times, when lending profits steadil y rose and commercial and investment banking flourished together. But analysts and investors are now questioning whether things have changed for good.” reuters

 

 

Mergers & Acquisitions '

Shareholders of London Metal Exchange Back $2.1 Billion Takeover  |  Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing won overwhelming support from London Metal Exchange's shareholders for its $2.1 billion takeover deal. DealBook '

 

Hong Kong Tycoon to Pay $1 Billion for British Gas Firm  |  The bid for MGN Gas Networks by four entities controlled by Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest person, seeks to broaden his global footprint in the energy sector. DealBook '

 

The Return of Merger Monday, July Edition  |  Deals normally evaporate in the middle of the summer as the temperature rises and bankers decamp for the beach. But the start of this week proved to be an exception to the rule and again revived the concept of a “Merger Monday.” DealBook '

 

Cnooc's $15 Billion Deal Expected to Secure Approval  |  The Chinese energy giant's bid for Nexen “offers enough incentives to pass a likely lengthy Canadian government vetting process, said investment bankers and attorneys,” The Wall Street Journal reports. wall street journal

 

Inside Cnooc's Nexen Deal  |  Reuters reports: “Nexen had been on the wish list of Chinese state oil company Cnooc for five years. The removal of C.E.O. Marvin Romanow was just the opening the Chinese needed to make their move, according to sources familiar with the situation.” reuters

 

Qatar Fund Increases Stake in Xstrata  |  Qatar Holding, which is tussling with Glencore International over the terms of the trading firm's takeover of Xstrata, increased its stake in Xstrata to more than 11 percent, according to Reuters. reuters

 

Fate of Tiger Beer to Be Decided by Friday  |  The board of Fraser and Neave is weighing offers for its Tiger Beer asset, Reuters reports. reuters

 

INVESTMENT BANKING '

Former Lehman Operating Chief Puts Mansion Up for Sale  |  Joseph M. Gregory, Lehman Brothers' former chief operating officer, led a lavish lifestyle. It now seems that he has listed his Long Island mansion for sale, with an asking price of $22 million. DealBook '

 

Bond Trading Loses Some Swagger  |  Tighter regulations and electronic technology are revolutionizing the once-stodgy bond market, threatening profits and jobs, Nathaniel Popper and Peter Eavis write in The New York Times. DealBook '

 

Investment Banks Cut Jobs in Asia  |  According to the research firm Coalition, 18 percent of global layoffs from m ajor banks happened in Asia in the first quarter, compared with 8 percent in 2011, The Wall Street Journal reports. wall street journal

 

Perella Weinberg to Assess the Value of a Brokerage Firm  |  The investment bank Perella Weinberg Partners has been called in to offer an assessment of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, which is valued very differently by its two owners, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified people familiar with the assignment. reuters

 

Bank Analyst Sees Little Benefit in Friendly Service  |  Richard X. Bove, the outspoken bank analyst, got a taste of unhelpful customer service at his Wells Fargo branch in Tampa, Fla. But the conclusion he reached, in a subsequent rese arch note, was that customer service might actually distract banks from the more important job of selling products and managing risk, The New York Times reports. “I'm struck by the fact that the service is so bad, and yet the company is so good,” he wrote. new york times

 

Wells Fargo's Murky Assets  |  Among big banks, Wells Fargo had the highest percentage of so-called Level 3 assets, which are relatively difficult to value, according to Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg News reports. bloomberg news

 

Deutsche Bank Blames Weak Euro for Drop in 2nd-Quarter Profit  |  The preliminary earnings report demonstrates the challenges facing Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen, who took over in May as co-chief executives of Deut sche Bank. DealBook '

 

Goldman Official Tries Out a Bigger Role  |  Elizabeth Beshel Robinson, Goldman Sachs's treasurer, had a prominent role during a conference call this week, fueling speculation that she may be in line to succeed David A. Viniar as chief financial officer, The New York Post reports. new york post

 

Bankia Said to Plan to Spread Payments Over Time  |  Bloomberg News reports: “Spain's Bankia group wants to pay holders of 3 billion euros ($3.6 billion) of its preferred shares most of their money back, though not for years to come, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.” bloomberg news

 

P RIVATE EQUITY '

Ancestry.com Is Said to Be in Talks for a Buyout  |  The genealogy Web site is in discussions with TPG Capital and Providence Equity Partners and Permira, according to people with knowledge of the matter. DealBook '

 

Clayton Dubilier Sells Off Last of Its Sally Beauty Shares  |  Clayton Dubilier & Rice said on Tuesday that it was selling its final holdings in Sally Beauty Holdings, garnering some $1.9 billion in proceeds from its investment. DealBook '

 

Carlyle Hires Liguori as Media Adviser  |  The Carlyle Group says it has hired Peter Liguori, a former Discovery Communications chief operating officer, as an adviser to t he firm's telecommunications and media group. DealBook '

 

Hong Kong Firm Raises $1 Billion for Energy Fund  |  The private equity firm Kerogen Capital, based in Hong Kong, plans to use its new energy fund to invest in regions that cater to Asia, Reuters reports. reuters

 

China Allows Insurers to Invest More in Private Equity  |  Insurers in China will be allowed to invest up to 10 percent of their assets in private equity, compared with 5 percent previously, Reuters reports. reuters

 

HEDGE FUNDS '

Third Point Increases Stake in Yahoo  |  A ccording to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, Daniel S. Loeb's Third Point, the activist fund that pushed for changes at Yahoo, now owns more than 73 million shares of the company, or about 6 percent, Reuters reports. reuters

 

Greenlight Capital Exits Best Buy Investment  |  David Einhorn said in a letter to investors that his fund had taken a “loss” on Best Buy when “unexpected problems emerged,” Reuters reports. The letter said the fund declined 3.2 percent in the second quarter. reuters

 

Hedge Fund Managers Back Same-Sex Marriage  |  A group of Republican-leaning hedge fund managers, including Paul Singer, Clifford S. Asness and Daniel S. Loeb, is supporting efforts to leg alize same-sex marriage in four states, The Financial Times reports. financial times

 

Hedge Funds Square Off Over Tribune Bankruptcy  |  A judge approved a plan to give control of the Tribune Company to a group of creditors led by Oaktree Capital and other firms. But other creditors, like Aurelius Capital Management, have appealed the decision, FINalternatives reports. finalternatives

 

I.P.O./OFFERINGS '

Netflix Contends With Shrinking Subscriptions  |  Netflix reported a return to profitability in the second quarter, but investors were spooked by news that a decline in subscriptions for the company's DVD-by-mail business outpaced gains in streaming subscriptions, the Media Decoder blog reports. new york times media decoder

 

Knight Capital Expected to Support Nasdaq's Compensation Plan  |  The Knight Capital Group, which says it took a loss trading Facebook, is “likely to express support” for Nasdaq's plan to compensate brokers for losses related to Facebook's debut, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing an unidentified person familiar with the broker's position. wall street journal

 

Europe's Crisis Looms Over United States I.P.O.'s  |  The Financial Times writes: “Europe's woes have sent a widely watched measure of U.S. market volatility higher just as weak equity capital markets in New York look to rebound from the fallout from Facebook's much-criticized public debut in May.” financial times

 

Malaysian Hospital Operator Rises on Debut  |  The stock of IHH Healthcare rose nearly 10 percent on Wednesday, after attracting $2.1 billion in the company's initial offering of shares, Reuters reports. reuters

 

VENTURE CAPITAL '

New Enterprise Associates Raises $2.6 Billion Fund  |  The venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates, which has backed Groupon and Diapers.com, has raised $2.6 billion for its latest fund. DealBook '

 

Square Expects New Financing an   d a Loftier ValueSquare Expects New Financing and a Loftier Value  |  The mobile payments start-up Square, best known for its pint-size credit card reader, is close to raising about $200 million, which would give the company an implied valuation of $3.25 billion. DealBook '

 

Tenaya Capital Raises a $372 Million Fund  |  The latest fund is the venture capital firm's first since it spun out of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. wall street journal

 

Twitter Plans an Archiving Function  |  Dick Costolo, Twitter's chief executive, told The New York Times, “We're working on a tool to let users export all of their tweets.” H e added, “You'll be able to download a file of them.” new york times bits

 

LEGAL/REGULATORY '

Technology Analyst Expected to Plead Guilty in Insider CaseTechnology Analyst Expected to Plead Guilty in Insider Case  |  John Kinnucan, founder of Broadband Research, based in Portland, Ore., is expected to plead guilty on Wednesday to sharing secret information about technology companies with money managers. DealBook '

 

JPMorgan Settles Credit Card Lawsuit  |  JPMorgan Chase has agreed to pay $100 million to settle a lawsuit filed by customers who said that the nation's largest bank raised minimum payments due on credit cards to generate more fees. DealBook '

 

Fed Expected to Favor New Stimulus if Economy Lags  |  The New York Times reports: “A growing number of Federal Reserve officials have concluded that the central bank needs to expand its stimulus campaign unless the nation's economy soon shows signs of improvement, including job growth.” new york times

 

Soccer Case Highlights Differences Between U.S. and English Bankruptcy Law  |  A British judge found that a rule favoring the claims of a soccer team's players and its league did not violate English bankruptcy law, writes Stephen J. Lubben, DealBook's In Debt columnis t. DealBook '

 

European Officials Approach Antitrust Settlement With Google  |  European regulators said recent concessions by Google could lead to a settlement, according to The Associated Press. associated press

 

Moody's Dims Outlook for Europe's Bailout Fund  |  A day after it reduced its outlook for the ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, Moody's assigned a “negative” outlook for the euro zone's temporary rescue fund, The Associated Press reports. associated press

 

Europe's Medicine Weakens Greece  |  The New York Times writes: “Greece's lenders say they will not finance the country any further unless it meets its goals. But many experts say that the targets were never within reach and that pushing three increasingly weak Greek governments to comply has only profoundly damaged the economy.” new york times

 



JPMorgan Settles Credit Card Lawsuit

JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay $100 million to settle a lawsuit filed by customers who said that the nation's largest bank increased monthly minimum payments due on credit cards to generate more fees.

The settlement, filed in court on Monday, needs to be approved by a judge. It potentially ends a federal lawsuit filed three years ago in San Francisco. The lawsuit accuses JPMorgan of improperly increasing cardholders' minimum payments due to 5 percent of balances, from 2 percent, in 2008 and 2009.

Credit card customers argued that the bank increased payments on borrowers who could not afford to pay more, ultimately creating more income from late fees.

JPMorgan argued in its court filings that the increase in monthly payments was reasonable and sensible.



When Picking a C.E.O. Is More Random Than Wise

What makes the perfect chief executive? If the way corporate boards at Yahoo and Duke Energy picked chief executives is any indication, it may be up to chance in large part.

Take Marissa Mayer, the newly appointed chief of Yahoo. She is a Stanford graduate, age 37, and Google's 20th employee. Until her new gig, Ms. Mayer was one of Google's stars and helped develop Gmail. She was a well-known face for Google, serving on the board of Wal-Mart Stores, attending White House state dinners and appearing as a regular member of Fortune's 40 under 40 of the hottest young business executives. In the ultimate sign of tech prominence, she has almost 200,000 Twitter followers.

Why her? According to the tech blog All Things D, she was thought to be a decisive and “disruptive agent of change” pushed by Daniel S. Loeb, the manager of the hedge fund Third Point, which owns about 6 percent of Yahoo. (Third Point disclosed in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that it had purch ased an additional 2.5 million Yahoo shares.) Ms. Mayer is also from Google's technology and product side, an area that Yahoo wants to focus on as it struggles to define itself either as an Internet company like Google or a media company, its main source of revenue.

Ms. Mayer is now the youngest chieftain of a Fortune 500 company. She has no experience running a public company or reorganizing one, something that Yahoo desperately needs. And in her previous job, she had an almost embarrassment of riches in terms of money and people, something that Yahoo lacks, at least on Google's scale.

The Yahoo board decided to go with youth and decisiveness over experience. In doing so, the company has agreed to pay a package that could exceed more than $100 million over five years if Ms. Mayer works out.

Is she the right choice? It is hard to know.

There is little solid analysis on what makes an effective chief executive. Most of it is in the form of quasi self-h elp books like “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People” and “Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap … and Others Don't.” Even these are remarkably vague, often citing factors like being “proactive.” Academic research is also not particularly helpful either, and often looks at youth versus maturity and experience. (Maturity typically wins.)

The consequence of this uncertainty is reflected in the high failure rate of chief executives. According to the Harvard Business Review, two out of five chief executives fail in their first 18 months on the job.

This all makes the choice of a chief executive a product of the board's vision and personalities rather than one of studied research on what characteristics the person needs.

This creates its own problems, as the drama unfolding in the merger of Duke Energy and Progress Energy illustrates. Directors took only hours after the merger to replace William D. Johnson, the Progress chief who was t o run the combined company, with James E. Rogers of Duke.

The reason given in testimony by Ann Gray, the lead director of the combined company, is that Mr. Johnson withheld information about repairs at the company's nuclear plan in Crystal River, Fla. More tellingly, Ms. Gray testified that the directors thought Mr. Johnson was imperious and that he had described himself to the board as “a person who likes to learn but not be taught,” leading the Duke directors to conclude that their input was not sought.

Both Mr. Johnson and Mr. Rogers are former lawyers who worked in private practice and appeared to graduate at the top of their class. Both also rode successive mergers to be leaders at their companies. They have remarkably similar backgrounds. This dispute can be chalked up to different personalities and cultures rather than finding the best person for the job.

All this suggests that boards picking chief executives are essentially acting on their hunch es and reflecting their own biases in their decision-making.

Culture and personality appeared to play a part in Ms. Mayer's selection as her search was reportedly heavily influenced by Mr. Loeb's presence. He's a brash, outgoing hedge fund activist who has made one of the biggest bets in his career with Yahoo. Picking someone like Ms. Mayer, who is known for her decisiveness, will play well with the Silicon Valley crowd, mitigating her negatives of inexperience and perhaps youth. After all, 37 is practically ancient in the hedge fund universe, as it is in Silicon Valley.

Compare this with how the search is likely to have unfolded if Yahoo's board had viewed itself as a media company. In that industry, top executives come up through the ranks. Leslie Moonves, the chief of CBS, is typical. He's 62 and has been in the industry almost his entire life. Robert A. Iger of the Walt Disney Company is 61 and is also deeply experienced of the industry. Ms. Mayer would never have come close to being picked.

This all means that the selection of a chief seems more about group decision-making than anything else. And group decision-making can be quite random.

I'm reminded of an exercise I once did at an old law firm retreat run by a group of consultants. We were divided into five groups of 10 people each. Each group was given the same 10 résumés and told to pick the best candidate for an executive position and rank the rest. Not surprisingly, group dynamics took hold and each group selected a different rank and almost all selected a different top pick.

This result is in accord with research on small-group dynamics and decision-making. The selection of executives is influenced by directors' own biases and backgrounds. Media boards tend to be directors who pick media people of a certain type; similarly with technology boards. This is influenced by a group negotiation process that depends on the people and personalities involved. I n the end, these boards tend to pick people who reflect themselves and the world they already know - something that psychologists call the confirmation bias.

The decision to pick a chief executive is often steered by flocks of high-level recruitment consultants. Recruiters are paid millions to have a stable of candidates that they feed to boards, steering the process in pursuit of the board's sometimes ill-defined wishes. This inherently limits the pool of candidates and further pushes boards to confirm their own biases in any selection.

Ms. Mayer and Mr. Rogers may do terrific jobs at their companies. But their appointments do not necessarily mean that they are the best candidates. Rather, their selection is a result of random and nonrandom factors, something that is anything but a perfect process.

Steven M. Davidoff, writing as The Deal Professor, is a commentator for DealBook on the world of mergers and acquisitions.


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Technology Analyst Expected to Plead Guilty in Insider Case

A technology research analyst who gained notoriety for taunting the federal government over its pursuit of insider trading is expected to plead guilty in United States District Court in Manhattan on Wednesday, according to people briefed on the matter.

John Kinnucan, founder of Broadband Research, based in Portland, Ore., is expected to plead guilty to sharing secret information about technology companies with money managers in exchange for cash.

People briefed on the matter spoke on the condition of anonymity ahead of the formal entering of the plea.

The government's case against Mr. Kinnucan included wiretaps, phone records, instant messages and cooperating witnesses.

Mr. Kinnucan relied on a wide web of sources, including senior employees at SanDisk and Flextronics as well as insiders at the technology firm F5 Networks, who freely shared insider information with him in exchange for cash and gifts, according to prosecutors. Those gifts included in vestments in start-ups, sharing a beach house and lavish meals, prosecutors said.

After obtaining the tips, Mr. Kinnucan shared that information with hedge fund clients in Texas and California, the government's complaint states. He charged his clients $30,000 a quarter, prosecutors said.

At one time, Mr. Kinnucan's clients included the large hedge funds Citadel in Chicago and SAC Capital Advisors in Stamford, Conn. Mr. Kinnucan emerged as one of the government's most vociferous critics during its wide-ranging crackdown on insider trading. He refused to cooperate with the authorities, disparaging the federal agents who came to his home in late 2010 as “fresh-faced eager beavers” in a letter to clients warning of the government's investigation.

In its multiyear case, the government has ensnared a number of analysts and hedge fund managers. It won big victories against Raj Rajaratnam, the billionaire founder of the Galleon Group hedge fund, and Rajat K. Gu pta, a former board member of Goldman Sachs. It has also involved low-level employees including Bonnie Hoxie, a secretary at Disney who tried to sell inside information about the company.

But the case against Mr. Kinnucan was among the most peculiar. His letter to clients about the investigation went viral, showing up in news accounts and on blogs across the country.

He began to grant dozens of interviews, where he continued to attack the government's efforts. In commentaries, he styled himself as an individual willing to stand up against the government's persecution of what he said were perfectly legal tactics.

But as the months wore on, his communications began to grow increasingly outlandish. He began to threaten the federal agents in charge of the case. He taunted them with racial epithets and expletives. He left a voice mail for one United States attorney stating: “Too bad Hitler's not here. He'd know what to do with you,” according to a government motion to deny bail in the case.

In February, agents arrested him at his Portland home and charged him with insider trading.

While facing charges, Mr. Kinnucan retained and dismissed several lawyers. His current lawyer could not be immediately reached for comment.



Former Lehman Operating Chief Puts Mansion Up for Sale

The wind-down of Joseph M. Gregory's once vast fortune has hit a new level: Lehman Brothers' former chief operating officer has listed his Long Island mansion for sale.

Daniel Gale Sotheby's International Realty has listed a six-bedroom, eight-bathroom house in Lloyd Harbor, N.Y. The street address of the property - which includes a 15,000-square-foot main house and a 6,000-square-foot guest house - matches public records for Mr. Gregory. The asking price is $22 million.

Mr. Gregory's home was one of several abodes owned by Lehman executives on Long Island's North Shore, the so-called Gold Coast of glittering mansions. So closely knit were top Lehman managers that they vacationed together and car-pooled together, according to a 2010 article in Vanity Fair.

But unlike many of those executives, Mr. Gregory had a proclivity for conspicuous consumption. A longtime lieutenant to Lehman's chief executive, Richard S. Fuld Jr., he was known for leading a highfly ing lifestyle that included taking a helicopter from his Lloyd Harbor home to Lehman's offices.

From “Too Big to Fail,” by DealBook's Andrew Ross Sorkin:

Few seemed to flaunt their personal wealth as much as he did. The helicopter commute was just the start of it. He and his wife, Niki, bought a house in Bridgehampton for some $19 million, and even though it was completely decorated, they had it redone top to bottom with their own designer. He drove a Bentley and encouraged his wife to take shopping trips to Los Angeles via a private plane.

But to finance his reportedly $15 million a year in expenses with a fortune mostly tied up in Lehman stock, Mr. Gregory kept his holdings in a margin account. He eventually resigned from the firm in 2008, as Mr. Fuld faced pressure from numerous members of his own executive committee over the investment bank's deteriorating financial health.

After Lehman filed for bankruptcy in 2008, Mr . Gregory has steadily sold off parts of that fortune. Among the first to go were the helicopter and a $4.4 million Park Avenue apartment. He also reportedly tried to sell his Hamptons home in 2010, two years after initially trying to find a buyer.

News of Mr. Gregory's latest real estate listing was reported earlier by Business Insider.



New York Fed Faces Questions Over Policing Wall Street

As the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced criticism for missing a multibillion-dollar trading loss at JPMorgan Chase, the regulator convened a town hall meeting in May to bolster employee morale.

Two months later, the New York Fed staff huddled again, after lawmakers questioned why the regulator had failed to rein in banks that manipulated key interest rates.

“We were told to keep our heads down and stay focused,” said one person present at the July meeting who requested anonymity because the gathering was not public.

The New York Fed, whose weaknesses were first exposed when the financial crisis hit, is undergoing a new trial by fire as it grapples with how to police Wall Street. While the regulator has revamped its approach to overseeing the nation's biggest banks since the crisis, recent black eyes suggest that fundamental problems persist.

Lawmakers will most likely focus on the record of the New York Fed when Timothy F. Geithner, the r egulator's former president, testifies on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, will appear before a Senate panel on Thursday.

The regional Fed bank, by virtue of its location in Lower Manhattan, is on the front line of financial regulation. With examiners stationed inside the banks, the regulator has a wide window into the inner workings of these institutions.

But the New York Fed does not have enforcement power like many American regulators. Instead, it reports potential wrongdoing to other agencies or the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and leaves its counterparts to dole out punishments if necessary.

The New York Fed's mission, officials say, is to broadly protect the health and safety of the financial system - not to micromanage individual banks.

“They focus on safety and soundness of the banks, which ultimately means they are not particularly focused on market manipulation,” sai d Sheila C. Bair, the former chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, another regulator.

In recent years, the New York Fed has beefed up oversight. Under the president, William C. Dudley, the regulator has increased the expertise of its examiners and hired new senior officials.

Even so, the JPMorgan debacle and the interest-rate investigation have raised questions about the New York Fed. They highlight how the regulator is hampered by its lack of enforcement authority and dogged by concerns that it is overly cozy with the banks.

Mr. Geithner is expected to face questions from lawmakers on Wednesday about the rate-rigging inquiry that has ensnared more than a dozen big banks. In June, Barclays agreed to pay $450 million to authorities for manipulating the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

Since the settlement, Mr. Geithner has heralded his efforts to reform the rate-setting process in 2008. But the New York Fed, which knew Barcla ys had been reporting false rates at the time, did not stop the actions.

And when Mr. Geithner briefed other American regulators about Libor in May 2008, he did not disclose the specific wrongdoing, according to people briefed on the meeting. In later briefings, New York Fed officials did warn their counterparts about “allegations of misreporting.”

“The regulator has an obligation to make a criminal referral if it suspects a crime may have occurred,” said Bart Dzivi, who served as special counsel to the Federal Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. “How this doesn't rise to that level, simply boggles the mind.”

The New York Fed has been engulfed by controversy since the financial crisis. Mr. Geithner was one of many regulators who had underestimated certain risks spreading through the financial system, saying in a May 2007 speech that “financial innovation has improved the capacity to measure and manage risk” while acknowledging that threats remained. In late 2008, the system nearly collapsed after Lehman Brothers failed.

This year, the New York Fed was again caught off guard when JPMorgan disclosed the trading losses, which have already exceeded $5 billion. The regulator has assigned about 40 examiners to the bank, but none of the officials kept close tabs on the chief investment office, the powerful unit that placed the ill-fated trade.

In the case of Libor, the New York Fed took a somewhat passive approach. Despite mounting evidence of problems, the agency focused on policy solutions rather than the wrongdoing.

People close to the Fed note that, at the time, the regulator was primarily concerned with saving Wall Street from collapse. And the regulator pushed harder than its British counterparts, records show. Mr. Geithner urged British authorities to “eliminate incentive to misreport” Libor, which affects the cost of trillions of dollars in mortgages and other loans.

Some New York Fed examiners are now focused on how the Libor investigation could damage the bottom line at banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan. The examiners, people briefed on the matter say, are assessing whether banks need to build reserves against the growing threat of lawsuits.

The concerns echo the New York Fed's broader moves to enhance supervision. After the crisis, the Fed formed a special team to spot emerging risks. Mr. Dudley also appointed a new head of bank supervision, Sarah J. Dahlgren, who first joined the Fed more than two decades ago after working as a budget official at Rikers Island jail.

In recent years, the New York Fed has doubled the number of on-site examiners and dispatched some of its most senior officials to big banks. The lead supervisors at each bank are some of the most “battle tested” and sophisticated regulators who are comfortable challenging Wall Street executives, one regulator said.

The New York Fed also notes that it has delved de eper into internal bank data, focusing on business units that generate the most revenue and risk. To better prepare the industry for sudden losses, the regulator has pushed banks to build extra capital.

But there are limits to its power. Despite its leading role in policing the banks, the New York Fed cannot levy fines. When examiners do detect questionable behavior, they often push the company to adopt changes. If the wrongdoing persists, officials can pass along the case to the Federal Reserve board in Washington.

It is up to the central bank to take action. The Fed, which can impose fines and cease-and-desist orders, filed 171 enforcement actions last year. The cases are down 44 percent from the year before, but the actions have increased sharply from the precrisis era.

Some critics also contend there is a revolving door between Wall Street and the New York Fed. Mr. Dudley was formerly the chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs, and his wife collects deferred compensation from her days at JPMorgan. After Bear Stearns collapsed in 2008, the New York Fed hired the firm's chief risk officer.

The New York Fed does limit the influence of employees who depart for a career on Wall Street. Some former senior officials cannot discuss regulatory matters with the Fed for up to a year. As an extra measure, examiners rotate between banks every three to five years to prevent a clubby culture from forming.

But some experts say the problem is not solved.

“It's a cultural problem at all the banking regulators,” said Ms. Bair, who is now a senior adviser to the Pew Charitable Trusts. “There's not a healthy separation, and you can see that in their hiring practices.”

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: July 25, 2012

An earlier version of this post misidentified the person in the accompanying photograph. It is William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Res erve Bank of New York, not Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner.